灰色关联分析法在油气管道半定量风险评价中的应用

肯特(W．kent Muhlbauer)管道风险评价法是一种半定量风险评价法,但是该方法在我国还处在起步阶段,其理论基础和应用技术都很不完善。为了有效处理评分中存在的主观性和不确定性因素,已经把模糊综合评判法引入到管道风险评价中。但是,传统的相对风险值计算还不够准确,为此介绍了灰色关联分析在油气管道半定量风险评价中的应用。通过对影响管道风险的评价指标(因素)体系的综合分析,确定了灰色综合评价的层次结构模型。构建了由第三方破坏指数、腐蚀指数、设计指数、错误指数、介质危险指数5大指标体系构成的管道系统风险综合评价指标体系,并采用层次分析与专家打分相结合的方法计算权重。在油气管道半定量风险评价中应用灰色关联分析法,可以使评价结果更准确。     

A new monitoring system for piping systems in fossil fired power plants

A CEC-funded project has been performed to tackle the problem of producing an advanced Life Monitoring System (LMS) which would calculate the creep and fatigue damage experienced by high temperature pipework components. Four areas were identified where existing Life Monitoring System technology could be improved:

1. 1. the inclusion of creep relaxation

2. 2. the inclusion of external loads on components

3. 3. a more accurate method of calculating thermal stresses due to temperature transients

4. 4. the inclusion of high cycle fatigue terms.

The creep relaxation problem was solved using stress reduction factors in an analytical in-elastic stress calculation. The stress reduction factors were produced for a number of common geometries and materials by means of non-linear finite element analysis. External loads were catered for by producing influence coefficients from in-elastic analysis of the particular piping system and using them to calculate bending moments at critical positions on the pipework from load and displacement measurements made at the convenient points at the pipework. The thermal stress problem was solved by producing a completely new solution based on Green's Function and Fast Fourier transforms. This allowed the thermal stress in a complex component to be calculated from simple non-intrusive thermocouple measurements made on the outside of the component. The high-cycle fatigue problem was dealt with precalculating the fatigue damage associated with standard transients and adding this damage to cumulative total when a transient occurred.

The site testing provided good practical experience and showed up problems which would not otherwise have been detected.     

Public Attitudes to In-House Water Recycling in England and Wales

This study, which is based on responses from over 300 individuals in England and Wales, explores how a willingness to use a water-recycling system of specific configuration varies against a number of factors which are linked to system design, system scale, system context, and water-conservation behaviour. Findings show that there is broad willingness to accept in-house water recycling provided that public health is not compromised.     

Performance comparison of masking models based on a new psychovisual test method with natural scenery stimuli

Various image processing applications exploit a model of the human visual system (HVS). One element of HVS-models describes the masking-effect, which is typically parameterized by psycho-visual experiments that employ superimposed sinusoidal stimuli. Those stimuli are oversimplified with respect to real images and can capture only very elementary masking-effects. To overcome these limitations a new psycho-visual test method is proposed. It is based on natural scenery stimuli and operates in the wavelet domain. The collected psycho-visual data is finally used to evaluate the performance of various masking models under conditions as found in real image processing applications like compression.     

基于相关性的人机系统可靠性模型

本文在剖析人机系统中操作者行为特征的基础上,考虑到操作者行为的自适应性、自学习能力及其行为形成主因子,着重结合操作者行为的相关性-感知作用于判断决策后影响到动作,建立了人机系统中操作者行为模式,并推导出计算操作者可靠度的公式,求出了相应参数.最后进行了实例量度,同时定量辨识了行为相关性对人可靠性的制约程度,以期从人机系统可靠性角度为人机系统的优化设计提供新的依据.     

Juvenile competence to stand trial evaluations: A survey of current practices and test usage among psychologists.

What is the current standard of practice for evaluations of juvenile competence to stand trial (JCST)? The present study surveyed psychologists regarding the practices used when conducting JCST evaluations. Respondents rated the importance of 17 elements that might be included in a JCST evaluation report. Of these elements, 7 were considered essential by 70% or more of respondents, with 9 additional elements rated as either essential or recommended. A majority of respondents felt that the use of psychological and forensic instruments was important. A list of tests used is provided, and the implications for the development of standards and policy are discussed to provide practitioners with additional knowledge that will help to further the state of the discipline. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

几种地下水易污性评价方法在徐州张集地区的应用

选择GOD法、DRASTIC法S、INTACS法及SI法4种易污性评价方法用于徐州张集地区的地下水易污性评价,应用GIS/ARCINFO输出张集地区的地下水易污性指标图。不同易污性评价方法对张集地区裂隙岩溶地下水的易污性评价得到了不同的结论,经分析,SI法更适用于张集地区的实际情况。具体应用时,要根据评价地区的实际条件,并和评价地区污染监测情况结合,选择合适的易污性评价方法评价地下水的易污性。     

矿山岩土工程系统环境质量评价指标体系

矿山现行的环境影响评价及其提交的环境影响报告书,是将矿山开发视为单个建设项目且只注重污染物排放和简单数量分析的单要素评价.本文将矿山开发视为统一系统,充分考虑系统内矿石开采、废石场、尾矿库等岩土工程及其矿岩氧化淋滤产生的毒害物质对矿区及其区域水土环境潜在而长期的影响,建立矿山岩士工程系统环境质量评价的指标体系,以改变矿山环境评价的传统旧式,规范和监督矿山开采行为,实现矿业开发与环境保护的协调发展.     

基于随机分析和概率预测的固定式海洋平台结构风险评估研究

对极端海况进行了环境荷载的联合概率分析。引入了整体不确定性和敏感性分析理论,利用非正态过程、具有不同相关性的多变量随机模拟技术,求解结构的失效概率。提出结构失效分析的新方法,并利用DNV提供的历史数据,对结构失效的后果做了适当分析。以埕北12-C井组平台为实例,对平台甲板高程(Air Gap)失效分析进行了实例计算。结果表明,使用多维联合极值分布理论及相应的求解方法,是离岸工程结构物风险评估的重要手段。     

大坝洪水漫顶风险评估

洪水漫顶是导致大坝溃坝的主要原因之一,大坝洪水漫顶风险评估是大坝风险评估的重要组成部分。为此,简要介绍了大坝洪水漫顶的风险模型,并通过实例详细地讨论了模型中各有关参数的不确定性处理方法,探讨了入库洪水的不确定性对洪水漫顶风险率的影响以及按规范设计的大坝的防洪能力问题。